Iran hits seven oil tankers in Strait of Hormuz as targeting improves

If you saw lower pump prices over the weekend, don't thank the White House — thank state gas tax holidays in Georgia and Ohio. The bigger story is playing out in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran has resumed attacks on oil tankers with troubling precision.

According to the Wall Street Journal, a brief lull in hostilities after U.S. strikes knocked out some of Iran's radar and communications allowed crude shipments to surge. Gulf countries scrambled to find alternative routes. But that window has closed. UK Maritime Trade Operations data shows Iran has hit seven ships since September 28, with an eighth likely struck Sunday.

A warning broadcast on a public shipping channel, reviewed by the WSJ, said ships using the U.S.-backed route “would be targeted and destroyed.” That's not bluster. A U.S. official told the WSJ that Iran's targeting abilities have improved in recent weeks, exposing the fragility of any recovery in oil flows. The official also said that after Iran launched missiles at a U.S. air base in Jordan, the U.S. backed off from its earlier threat to strike Iranian tankers.

The result: early signs that flows are slowing, though firm data lags because many ships are running without transponders to avoid becoming targets. Rory Johnston, founder of oil research firm Commodity Context, told the WSJ he estimates flows are already down by two million to three million barrels a day. Gulf producers are paying $30–40 million per round trip through Hormuz, or $15–20 a barrel before insurance.

AAA puts average U.S. gas at $4.37 a gallon and diesel at $6.32. Brent crude is still above $100 a barrel, and analysts expect it to stay there through 2028 if attacks continue. Capital Economics senior economist Hamad Hussain told the WSJ, “The step-up in attacks on ships highlights how the current equilibrium in the oil market is fragile and could easily be shattered.”

Years of high prices? Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser told London's Energy Intelligence Forum that even once Hormuz fully reopens, replenishing inventories while meeting demand could take two years. “The system is already straining,” he said.

What does that mean for your driveway? If you drive 21,000 miles a year and average 20 mpg, $6 gas is about $525 a month. That's real money, but it's not panic-button territory. Selling a perfectly good car for something more efficient only makes sense if you were already shopping. If you are, this is another reason to consider a hybrid or EV. Or, as I've done: buy a motorcycle that gets 50 mpg. Expensive gas isn't so bad when you're averaging that.

• fuel economy
• gas prices
• geopolitics
• Iran
• oil tankers
• Strait of Hormuz